Politics                 Mobilisation in Russia        21 September 2023


   Exactly a year ago, on 21 September 2022, as Russia continued its
   full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin declared a "partial"
   mobilisation.  This initial phase, which endured through the autumn
   of 2022, witnessed the summoning of an estimated 300,000 individuals.
   This strategic step was taken by Russia to bolster its units that
   had incurred significant losses during the initial phases
   of the aggression and to establish over 75 new "territorial"
   regiments, which are now operative on the frontline.

   Russian officials have stated that they will persist in their fight
   with the aid of volunteers and that they have an objective to recruit
   420,000 contract soldiers in 2023.  However, this target appears
   ambitious, and the Kremlin's assertions of success are greeted with
   doubt.  From September to December 2022, a mere 20,000 volunteers
   were enlisted, and it remains ambiguous if this figure has risen
   appreciably since then.

   Concurrently, Russian forces persist in enduring heavy losses.
   By the close of May 2023, the Russian Armed Forces and the Wagner
   Group had suffered an estimated 47,000 men killed in action.  From
   May to September, another 15,000 soldiers are believed to have been
   lost.  Furthermore, about 50,000 contracts of pardoned prisoners who
   had previously served in the Wagner Group were ended in 2023.

   As per the Russian Defence Ministry's strategy, the army is set
   to augment by half a million individuals.  Two new armies and an army
   corps were on the agenda to be founded in 2023.  Yet, even if
   the initiative to recruit new contract soldiers is fruitful,
   the ambition to enhance the army's dimensions is at risk.

   Moreover, a rotation of the 2022 mobilisation cohort may soon be
   imperative.  Compelling them to combat until the Ukraine campaign's
   conclusive end could prove dear for the Russian command.  Absent
   a change of personnel, units might witness a decline in their combat
   efficacy.

   The sole uncertainty is pinpointing when the second phase
   of mobilisation will commence.  Nevertheless, the protraction
   of the conflict in Ukraine makes this occurrence increasingly
   probable and imminent.





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